During the 20th century political and economic power passed from the United Kingdom and Western Europe to Russia and ultimately America. Prior to 1950, the most important political decisions regarded war; following the advent of nuclear weaponry, the most important choices involved avoiding war. In the developed countries, sociological changes often preceded politics.
At the start of the century, railways had unified the corners of Europe, North America, and much of Russia and Africa. (South America is little treated by Blainey.) Germany was the expansionist power: once it acquired colonies, the navy that’s often seen as a leading cause of World War I inevitably followed. The conflict manifest the effects of specialized labor: whereas in the Napoleonic era the military commanded approximately of the combatants’ GDP, by 1915 it subsumed nearly half. Germany and France lost some 15 percent of their men, others higher, whereas the UK only six percent – yet the British famously lamented the squandering of the generation and so too long embraced pacificism in the face of dictators. Wilson made eloquent but irresponsible promises. National ‘self determination’ created tariff barriers. More significant, by the slump of 1930, half of the world’s population were economically dependent on international trade.
In speaking of Mussolini, the author observes that ‘one-party government goes hand in hand with an official set of ideas.’ Lenin made Russia communist, Stalin made it a world power (with some help from the US, as directed by Hoover!). Russian farming’s conversion to collectivism was hugely productive, enabling the country’s industrial base to reach third place globally by 1939. Hitler’s rise was less due to his personality than skillful manipulation of appeasement. The Japanese decision not to attack the USSR was key to Russia’s remaining in the early phase of the war. In the Pacific, air power gained its first triumph over maritime forces in the fall of British Singapore. Stalin outwitted Churchill and Roosevelt.
In the first postwar decade, the stage shifted to Asia: the fall of China, the Korean War, and the economic recovery of Japan. Decolonization commenced. Ghandi’s rise was shaped by Thoreau, Ruskin and Tolstoy. African leaders didn’t think past independence. The UK’s surrendering the strategic cornerstones of Suez (1956), Singapore (58), and Persian Gulf bases outweighed African concessions. Israeli settlement of Palestine eclipsed European postwar migrations (and the Asian subcontinent?). The rise of rocket science led to the boldest adventures in four centuries, and also to the Cuban Missile Crisis, on which topic the author makes the (rare) error of overlooking Kennedy’s handing back Turkish bases. By the time the Suez Canal recovered from the damage of the 1967 war, it was too small for modern tankers. Containers revolutionized shipping too in raising productivity, reducing theft, and so creating higher pay. The rise of radio (and later TV) had undermined the schoolroom, which in the 19th century had been expected to extend civilization influences, and later fueled the demagogues. (The British commentator David Frost observing that TV is entertainment by people you wouldn’t let into your home.) Women’s work (cooking, cleaning) was radically improved by advances in the 1960s, a decade that ‘enthroned’ the cult of the teenager, feminism and the pill, black rights, and the green movement. The direct result was declining European birth rates.
Vietnam was the last major Communist victory, soon overwhelmed by the Soviet-Afghan war as well as the contradictions and ossification of Communist societies. The author notes that when the Berlin wall fell, the Russians had more divisions on its Chinese border than in Eastern Europe. China’s rise dependent on capital from emigrants, not Western banks, most of whom came from Guangzhou (Guangdong) and Fujian provinces.
The end of World War I had fostered disagreement and disillusion, the end of the Cold War optimism. By century’s end, Europe was more united, under the aegis of the European Union, than at any time since the Holy Roman Empire. So was the world linked by the rise of global languages (especially English), culture (e.g., sport), technology, ‘megacities’ (Asian cities led by Tokyo). The most divisive trend was radical Islamism: after World War I, Turkey’s conversion to secular rule was less remarked; at century’s end, Russia had returned to a statist economy while Turkey was moving back toward Islam. Secular pluralism and social theory each petered out. It would be unwise to assume Western democracy has triumphed because it requires prudence and experience of elected officials. Blainey is typically orthodox liberal, endowing his views with common sense and disapproving of leftist ideology.