2. Taylor, Course of Germany History (14 Jan 2026)

The German people settled for tyranny. Following Luther, every major sociopolitical group sided with authority over liberty; as the 19th century wore on, compromises herded liberals, Junkers, Catholics, and capitalists toward the militarized, Prussian state. Socialism, the remaining force with a popular, national base, succumbed in the Weimar era.

Bismarck’s handiwork in excluding Habsburg Austria from Klein Deutschland is the efficient cause of cataclysm. He is Taylor’s roundest figure, comfortably surpassing Wilhelm II and Hitler, a ‘barbarian of genius’ mastering the ‘mechanics’ of civilization but not its spirit. Liberal-minded actors hardly figure, subordinated to socioeconomic classes.

The tradition of lessen und denken is dismissed as idealism divorced from power. Slavs are valorized, as a rhetorical counterweight to corrupt German society. Socialism, though equally fractious as the bourgeois groups and at least nominally anti-liberal, is treated more as counterfactual than another failed paragon.

Writing in the penultimate year of World War II, Taylor asserts divided Germany is the only solution to the threat of militarized domination of Europe. Notably different from Struggle for the Mastery of Europe’s focus on personality-driven diplomatics and, to a lesser extent, Habsburg Monarchy’s concern with the imperial dynasty and its elites, this work is more polemic and epistemic.

Charlemagne’s Reich, Europe’s oldest continuous political form, was established in 800 as universal and Christian. It was never coterminous with the German people in the same way the English or French state correlates with its citizenry. Instead it was barbarism on the edge of Western civilization: the Germans, numbering 70-80 million, aped western Europe while brutally suppressing some 250 million Slavs, whose ‘deep sense of equality, love of freedom, and devotion to humanity’ sooner or later would end ‘artificial lordship’.

Slavic subjugation was firstly borne of martial conquest, then economic exploitation. The Hanseatic league’s breakup precluded English and Dutch traders, helping establish German burghers or Yiddish Jews (Yiddish being a Rhenish dialect) to the leadership of such towns as Prague, Budapest, Riga, and Lemberg. The Hanse ought to have produced the German king; nonetheless, as they were not subordinate to the emperor, their peoples enjoyed liberties not known in contemporary England or France.

Luther, who exemplified later Romanticism’s irrationality and Sonderweg, lost faith in the people after the Peasant’s Revolt of 1525, taking up with the northern princes. Though defending conscience, the confession became conservative and quietist. What started as a ‘middle class’ nationalism turned into an absolutist particularism, whereas Catholicism produced a genuine national culture. Consequently there could be no popular unity, only the question whether the emperor could consolidate Mitteleuropean lands. Charles V tried and failed. In 1555, the Peace of Augsburg recognized the multitude of German princes and established the populace would follow the ruler’s creed.

The Thirty Years War saw imperial conquest of Protestant princes, then imperial defeat by Sweden and France. 1648’s Treaty of Westphalia secured princely independence via external powers. The check on Habsburg unification created ‘greater Germany’s’ Austrian problem. Therefore the German burgher thought of freedom as the lack of princely rule. Authority had no sympathy with national sentiment; national sentiment opposed authority. Serfdom was reintroduced.

Prussia’s rise started with Friedrich II’s seizure of Silesia from Maria Theresa in 1740 to create manufactures, and the partition of Poland in 1772, which linked Brandenburg with East Prussia. The army improved through harsh discipline and bureaucracy. The Junkers were yet unimportant, working their estates, not leisured so as to pursue a constitutional or artistic course.

Joseph II recognized his Austrian base was too slender to rule Germany, and so resolved to add Bavaria. First he made a claim to its throne after a Wittelsbach line failed, which Prussia blocked by 1778-79’s War of Austrian Succession, and then sought to trade it for the Austrian Netherlands, which Frederich II stymied by establishing the Fürstenbund to assert traditional princely rights in the empire (notably attractive to Saxony and Hanover).
Napoleon’s 1803 Confederation of the Rhine gave the smaller principalities French-style constitutions, legal codes, and civil liberties; emancipated Jews; and temporarily ended Habsburg-Prussian dualism. The free cities nourished liberal thought. None struggled for their gains. Moreover, there was no popular rising in 1813-14, no national sentiment. The Treaty of Paris produced only modest reorganization of the statelets: Hanover (i.e., England) and Prussia gained western, Catholic lands – the latter’s possessions now predominantly west of the Elbe – while Saxony lost half of its kingdom for joining the allies too late.

The greater Germany of 1815 was 75 percent agricultural, with an urban population but half as big as Paris, few merchants, and no coal industry or budding factories. Austria’s drift from little Germany would grow in the ‘quiet years’ to 1848. In Prussia, where Hegel’s predominance associated freedom in the state and the state with inevitability, the Zollverein commenced in 1818 as a common tariff from Konigsberg to Aachen, making Hohenzollern lands seem essential. Intended as consolidation on Prussian terms, it foreshadowed Bismarck’s amalgamation. Liberalism made no advance, gained no power, though the statelets’ diets, middle-class bureaucracies, and lack of class privileges gave off such form. The landed nobles should have allied with the peasantry, but were stymied by princes and bureaucrats more responsive to fear of Prussian and Habsburg power, the latter embodied by the Metternich.

1848 was the decisive year of Germany history. For the first time since the Peasant’s Revolt, the people were center stage, but relied on ideas not power and so failed the turning point. Incipient middle classes as well as emergent labor lacked the fervour of French revolutionaries.
The Frankfurt National Assembly, assembled in May, mainly comprised burghers and schoolmen but elevated an aristocrat, the Austrian Archduke John, as its executive. Presently its pretensions were exposed. At the contemporaneous Slavic congress, the Czechs laid claim to Bohemia. Having no army, Frankfurt was forced to rely on Habsburg forces – setting up the counter-revolution’s first victory. Denmark’s claim to Schleswig and Holstein magnified the point: as Hohenzollern troops advanced on the disputed provinces, England and Russia opposed Prussian possession. Prussia, unable to fight both, conceded against Frankfurt’s wishes.

The reconquest of Vienna in fall 1848 disillusioned confederation Germany of the Habsburgs, whereas Prussian counterrevolution, completed by April 1849, caused no open breach. Little and greater Germans were brought into open competition. The idealist liberals, the radicals, and the Catholics championed the former, in opposition to (Protestant) Prussia; pragmatists argued little Germany was pregnant. Frankfurt offered to crown Friedrich William, which he disdained, and then proclaimed revolution. The Prussian army scattered it from existence. Many radicals fled to the USA, joining the hundreds of thousands who had already migrated; some 250,000 would leave annually in the 1850s. The liberals withdrew from politics, drifting toward business, and the budding capitalist class learned to side with the winners, the military.

Nonetheless, Prussia’s coercive efforts to assume control of foreign policy and military affairs, commencing with 1849’s League of Three Kings (with Saxony and Hanover) and followed by 1850’s Erfurt union, foundered on Wurttemberg and Bavarian defiance and anti-liberal self-interest along with Hannover and Saxon defection. Rebellion in Prussian ally Hesse-Cassel completed reversion to Habsburg leadership of the confederation, via the Russian-sponsored Punctation of Olmutz. Austria made the running until reconciling with the papacy in 1855 and defeat at Solferino in 1859; Prussia, nursed grievance, copied British industry (notably in the Ruhr coalfields) and state railway construction (to be pre-approved by the military).

The efficient cause of Bismarck’s rise was Schmerling’s 1861 coming to power in Austria. In establishing a Viennese parliament and pressing for reform of the German confederation, the latter prompted fears of resurgent liberalism; the Kaiser was persuaded to call for the former not so much to assert Prussia in Germany as to shore up the military / landowning class. (Improbably, the settler landlords of East Prussia were less rigidly aristocratic than the core of Brandenburg, Silesia, and Pomerania.) Bismarck’s greatness was not in mastering events but accommodating them as if he were in charge. So if Germany were to be unified, it would follow Prussia, exclude Catholic Austria, and sacrifice Volk in the east and southeast so as to avoid exposing the marcher Junkers to Russia.

1863’s Alvensleben convention with Russia secured Russian neutrality as well as the eastern lands at Poland’s expense, to the dismay of radicals and Austrians hoping to hasten the czar’s fall. Francis Joseph came to Frankfurt to promote unity but Wilhelm I declined, for Bismarck sought to isolate Austria, to effect Prussian-Habsburg alliance on little German terms. Though most segments which opposed the Hohenzollerns including radicals, imperial traditionalists, princes, and Catholics still looked to Vienna, war became inevitable – this time without the possibility of Russian intervention. Following Sadowa (Koniggratz), Bismarck settled quickly while ‘asking’ of the Reichsrat an indemnity for unconstitutional collection of taxes for rearmament. (Treitschke, a Saxon liberal of Bohemian Czech origin, converted to the Prussian cause after 1866 – laboriously in Taylor’s view.) The French war, prosecuted despite inferior population and material (rifles) but with superior railway mobility, was fought in the name of conquest not nationality. Realpolitik supplanted Europe’s concert of powers,

Bismarck’s opponents were romantic, greater Germans looking backward to a Habsburg-led empire and radicals wanting universal suffrage. In the 1860s the romantics became the Catholic Center, opposed to liberals and Junkers (for their treatment of Polish peasants), and the radicals became the Marxist Social Democrats, opposed to landowners and industrialists. Both disliked separation from Austria, both thought constitutional monarchy and an impotent Reichstag on the basis of little Germany unacceptable. Bismarck offered the vote to make the Junkers allies of the ‘most progressive and powerful’, the working classes and the capitalists. The former accepted the prizes of security and voting, the latter prosperity and soon unification. Presenting Junker and industrial interests as ‘national’ forced the two opposition groups to become particularist though in fact they were the truly nationwide groups. The Kulturkampf taught the Catholics to seek power at the expense of principle. The crash of 1873 prompted calls for economic protection: imported American and Russian grain (ironically brought in by rail) led to tariffs. State capitalism became another foe of liberalism.

Bismarck fell in 1890 when the national parties declined to a political minority; Wilhelm II was keen to set his own course, ironically still more demagogic. Meanwhile the parties had learned to extend special pleading (e.g., agrarians for further protection from imported wheat, industrialists for continuing building). Thus Bismarck had made autonomous, genuine social change impossible: the ‘world policy’, war as the means of national reconciliation, was necessary as an outlet. After Bulow’s fall, the chancellor’s office was chaotic and the Kaiser, humbled a Daily Telegraph interview, lacked authority. Successive chancellors like Bethman-Hollweg had no policy, the Kaiser no command of the state machinery. The Azbern affair, in which a German commander in Alsace imprisoned civilians, provoked both an overwhelming vote of no confidence and no follow through. But economic production newly surpassed the United Kingdom and France.

No one was in charge of pre-war decision-making but all acquiesced in support of the Habsburg empire, and equally the institutions which underpinned little Germany (for which greater Germany was unthinkable so long as Austria-Hungary contained so many Slavs). The military took overt control with Ludendorff’s accession in August 1916; the Reichstag in October declared it expected the chancellor to fall in behind military command. It required one million solders to enforce the Brest-Litovsk treaty, forces which were needed on the Western front: Schlieffen’s strategy had failed.

Following armistice the allies treated repression of the October revolution, notably Luxemburg’s murder, as the price of forestalling Bolshevism. Socialism failed the republic (but preserved militarism) by dissociating with the Spartacist movement. The Weimar Reichstag contained 19th-century parties with new names; agrarians, industrialists, Prussian conservatives, national liberals were mere interest groups, not disciplined parties, formerly bargaining with the chancellor, now with one another. The military and all manner of nationalists were merely biding time; the Freikorps, which supported Kapp’s failed 1920 putsch, was deployed to quell labor strife.

Poincare called ‘the bluff’ of hyperinflation, which was tantamount to repudiating war debt. The National Liberal Stresemann, succeeding to power in August, initiated six years of liberalism, and American loans via the Dawes plan followed (not preceded) recovery. Between 1924-29 Germany industry gained from rationalization – after which only revived armament sufficed for the cartels. Stresemann was not deceitful but only doing his best for liberal capitalism, failing in the same way Bismarck could not save the Junkers.

After Stresemann’s passing the Center was willing to ally with the miliary, while unemployment during the depression sapped the will of skilled workers, again said to be the only reliable republican block. The communists could not see the need to ally with the social democrats, who were the (another?) last hope for the republic. The National Socialists stepped in as gangsters. There was chaos in the 8 months after Bruning’s dismissal in May 1932: Hitler was Ludendorff’s successor in demagogy.

Could Germany have become a liberal democracy by renouncing foreign ambition? Victory was the lifeblood of the most important classes (the Junkers have fallen by the wayside after the 1920s), and in May 1933 the Social Democrats refused to oppose Hitler’s foreign policy. But did authoritarianism drive policy or vice versa? Without reconciliation between Austrian Catholics and socialists, the Habsburg empire could not forestall her neighbour. The Poland-German neutrality pact freed Hitler’s way to claim Bohemia, a greater Germany manoeuvre. The Czech Bohemian problem was all but as important as the Polish problem in eastern Prussia. Then followed the resumption of the draft, re-militarizing the Rhineland, and intervening in Spain, all of which seemed defensive to the west but were actually revanchist. Western powers recognized the current only in 1938-39.

23. Taylor, Habsburg Monarchy 1809-1918 (13 Dec 2025)

The 19th-century Habsburg monarchy took as its raison d’etre acting to stabilize Mitteleuropa but failed to keep pace with either liberalism or nationalism. After the tumult of 1848, the dynasty’s repeated pursuit its own interests – the army and financial administration (i.e., taxation) – led to constitutional muddle which could not reconcile emergent peoples to German-flavored federalization. Surrendering the possibility of greater Germany after 1866, the empire turned away from liberalism following the crash of 1873, thereafter stumbling into the train of Magyar Hungary and Prussian Germany. The empire fell not because it was unworkable but since the national elites envied sovereignty without exercising responsibility. Her successors also struggled to convert the peasantry to liberalism, instead becoming agrarian democracies ill-equipped to manage power, as Metternich predicted.
The empire’s ‘missions’ had included defending Europe from Ottoman Turks in the 16th century, promoting the Counterrevolution in the 17th, and promoting Enlightenment in the 18th, as a means to the permanent, paramount cause of the dynasty’s honor and glory. In the 19th, it unsuccessfully sought to block Greater Germany, too late in seeking to enter the Zollverein and then the Confederation.
1620’s Battle of White Mountain determined the empire’s character: the Czech nation and Protestant religion was submerged, Germanic Austria extended to Bohemia. Hungary, reconquered after a final Turkish assault in 1683, sidestepped the same outcome in 1707 and 1711, latterly by the Peace of Szatmar in which the Magyars gained recognition for the county gentry’s managing judicial and fiscal matters (the comitat) in exchange for recognizing Charles VI as sovereign. The bargain was reinforced by 1740’s Pragmatic Sanction, intended to secure Maria Theresa’s succession, which swapped the indivisibility of Habsburg lands in illogical exchange for Magyar privileges. The pact foreshadowed 19th-century efforts to position the master-nation peoples (Germany, Hungary, Italy, and Poland) against one another.
Habsburg lands were entailed estates, not a nation, a collection of ‘Irelands’ whose nobility were loyal to Vienna (save those in Galicia and Italy). Imperial bureaucrats were town dwellers in Prague, Budapest, Zagreb, Brno, promoting the Enlightenment.
Joseph II (reigned 1765 as co-regent to 1780, then as monarch to 1790) saw the empire as Germanic, breaking with the Hungarian settlement and also the Catholic Church in the interest of a centralized state. Land reforms were intended to increase property subject to tax, but restricted sales among social classes, meaning the social (i.e., formative national) character of peasant communities was strengthened and not subsumed in German ways. Simultaneously, magnates amalgamated the lands of petty nobles, creating incipient capital. (Freeing Jews from restrictions typical of Russia created a class grateful to the dynasty.)
Following the Congress of Vienna, Francis II (Holy Roman Emperor from 1792-1806, then Emperor of Austria 1804-36) upheld Metternich’s system borne of 1819’s Carlsbad Decrees (imposing censorship and control of national university groups) as well as the Holy Alliance with Prussia and Russia, these the two pillars of the empire’s contribution to the Concert of Europe.
Metternich sought to arrange regional diets in support of the dynasty; but regional bodies in 1825 and 1830 had demanded the use of popular languages. He wrongly supposed the Magyars would be content with the post-Napoleonic settlement, but winning the Hungarian gentry to federalism would have meant ending comitat privileges and otherwise making liberal concessions. His rival, Kolovrat, standing as an independently wealthy Bohemian to a Rhinelander in need of dynastic employ, won control of domestic policy after balancing the crown’s accounts in 1831; Metternich regained sole control on Ferdinand’s 1835 succession. Louis Kossuth’s Magyar nationalism both made the running of awakening Diets and, like the Habsburgs, pursued pseudo-liberal policies, for instance in replacing Latin with Magyar but not Romanian (in Transylvania), Croatian, etc. Before 1848, this was mainly the handiwork of intellectuals in towns of more than 100,000 – Milan and Venice, Prague, Budapest – where a Rights of Man worldview was contending to supersede Germanic bourgeois liberalism. Italian nationalists sought not Magyar privilege but outright independence for Lombardy and Venetia, and so threatened Metternich’s entire domestic system as well as the policy of deterring French aggression.
***
1848 commenced with February riots in Paris, then followed Budapest, where Kossuth perceived that unless the gentry acted radical intellectuals would capture the peasantry. The March laws, established in Bratislava’s diet (subsequently removed to the Hungarian capital), converted the constitution to recognizing solely Francis Joseph’s personal rule; abolished the Hungarian chancellery and set up a viceroy without reference to Vienna; incorporated Transylvania and Croatia; abolished the robot, established the Magyar language and enlarged suffrage; and established a separate army, budget, and foreign policy. Ferdinand acceded.
Bohemia simultaneously overreached, demanding unification of Bohemia, Moravia, and Silesia despite lack of historical precedent; Silesia was predominantly German, as were Moravian elites. In the Slav congress of June, Palacky launched Austroslavism, neither Russian nor German, as an alternate to Slav nationalism. The Prague meeting produced both a revolutionary manifesto, for instance seeking the reunion of Poland, and an address to the emperor calling for improved treatment of subject peoples. The bifurcation identified the substance of the empire’s final mission, its ‘decisive question’. Street fighting broke out, to be crushed by the imperial army; but the empire was not uniformly strong-willed.
In Lombardy, also in March, locals called for aid from the King of Sardinia, which invasion Radetzky was initially ordered not to resist, leading to claims on all Habsburg Italian lands; however, Germanic students in the Tyrol and Trieste remained loyal and so checked the momentum. The army in Lombardy-Venetia, having withdrawn to the Quadrilateral (Verona, Peschiera del Garda, Mantua, and Legnago between the Mincio and Adige rivers), recovered with Lombard victories in July and, following siege, Venetian surrender in August 1849.
In Vienna, Archduchess Sophia led the engineering of Metternich’s resignation; but Viennese middle and working classes went further – in April Windischgratz’s army narrowly kept order. The dynastic court fled to Innsbruck; ministers remaining in Vienna promulgated an imperial constitution styled on Belgium’s, and the following month, conceded a constituent assembly.
September’s Act of Emancipation was the most consequential legislation of Ferdinand’s reign, abolishing without compensation the hereditary (comitat) rights of landlords and the robot, while establishing peasant security of tenure. Subsequently, landowners were no longer interested to retain peasants, some of whom sold and moved to the towns, providing labor for industrialists and support for the swamping of German elites. Soon they wished for schooling in the vernacular, especially in Bohemia and Slovenia, and switched from opposing aristocrats to contending among one another as subject (i.e., incipient) nationalities. The abolition of hereditary jurisdiction ceded power to imperial officials, but only in Hungary did the decline of petty gentry matter – elsewhere it was too small – and remaining peasants lost their revolutionary fervor.
Broadly, the court and revolutionaries each came to accepted remodeling along the lines of the master nations; the dynasty preserved but was never serious about working the subject peoples. Habsburg policy acknowledged Croatia but not Transylvania, which was left to the Magyars. Bohemia exposed its dilemma, for the regional elite’s Germanic character had given way. The bourgeois retreated from these views as the revolutionary tide receded, but had indicated a fundamental preference for German confederation.
Insurrection had not ended: in October, Viennese radicals rose, but were unsupported by peasants in lower or upper Austria and suppressed by Windischgratz. At the same time the restored Croat leader Jellacic invaded Hungary, effectively rescinding Habsburg acceptance of the March Laws while also indicating the Magyars would not be free of popular discontent. Jellacic, after helping suppress Vienna, was defeated. Ferdinand abdicated in December; in March 1849 Francis Joseph issued the centralizing March constitution. Kossuth declared independence, which went unrecognized and prompted Russia’s May invasion, restoring matters to status quo ante. Hence both greater Germany and national Austria failed in 1848, and national Hungary in 1849.
***
Afterward, the already dwindling German elites hoped for revived imperialism, while fissiparous peoples such as the Bohemian Czechs wished for federalism. The dynasty thus reasserted itself as ruling subject peoples – the ‘empire of 70 millions’ – whom Francis Joseph trusted no more than liberalism. The Bach system launched with 1850’s abolishment of Hungarian tariffs, persisting until 1859. The decade saw great capital investment especially in railroads, but 1857’s crisis shook liberal faith. Foreign affairs predominated: as in Metternich’s time policy sought to deter French interest in Italy and check Russia’s pursuit of Danubian principalities as a route to Turkey. The Crimean war’s outcome blocked the latter, yet the empire lost. Russia blamed her for threatening to join the allies, while the allies thought the war could have been prevented had she done so earlier. Worse, the allies had stopped Russia alone, and the Peace of Paris stopped Austria herself advancing to the mouth of the Danube. The empire’s Mitteleuropa mission was compromised.
Martial law was lifted form Lombardy-Venetia in 1857; the following year Napoleon III agreed to help Cavour expel the Austrians. Sardinia was given an ultimatum to disarm, but the Habsburg army mobilized more slowly than the French. Radetzky lost at Magenta and then Solferino. Peace, struck directly between France and the empire, surrendered Lombardy but not Venetia or the Quadrilateral, and demonstrated the dynasty must share power with the master nations. The prestige of the army, vital to survival in 1848, suffered.
The October Diploma of 1860 was intended as a federalist document, with legislation to derive from the diets and a Reichsrat. The countervailing February Patent of 1861 made the Vienna parliament imperial, the diets reduced to acting as regional electoral colleges. Voting was weighted for urban Germans and landlords. Neither addressed the erstwhile Hungarian concessions of 1848. Francis Joseph insisted the Reichsrat must never interfere with foreign policy or the army, never to relent.
Then followed constitutional absolutism under Schmerling. In 1863 the minister persuaded Francis Joseph to bid for leadership of the German confederation; Prussia declined to attend a Frankfurt convention, and subsequently thwarted the empire’s application to the Zollverein. Austrian bourgeois and intellectuals, mistakenly thinking the Habsburgs to be turning to German rationalism, wholly went over to the Habsburgs (as German liberals would the Hohenzollerns in 1866).
Francis Deak, repudiating the scope of Kossuth’s ambitions, thought the Magyars could not oppose both the Habsburgs and Hungary’s own subject peoples, and so chose to ally with the empire, to reassert as a historic Habsburg nation. Publishing Magyar demands in the summer of 1865, he drew Francis Joseph to Budapest to recognize the grants of 1848. Schmerling fell. Hungary’s gains came at the expense of the Reichsrat: Deak demanded a ministry responsible to the emperor, Belcredi – appointed to resolve Hungarian matters so as to prepare for Prussian war – countered with a comitat and ‘national’ diet. Andrassy, returned from exile with Kossuth, suggested a compromise of delegations of Hungarians and Austrians that would be responsible for internal matters and work together on imperial matters (i.e., the nationalities), essentially the basis of 1867’s dualism.
After 1863, war with Prussia was inevitable: Italy allied with the Hohenzollerns, refusing the empire’s belated offer to cede Venetia (which was then offered to France). Routing Austria at Sadowa in July 1866, Bismarck opened negotiations promptly, to block French or Russian participation, which resulted in Austria’s final exclusion from unified Germany.
Beust, a Saxon, succeeded to the mission of pacifying subject peoples, so as to restore the anti-Prussian possibility of empire. And again Hungary was to be mollified. He revived the February Patent, narrowing the Reichsrat to ‘constitutional Austria’, the emperor retaining sole control of foreign policy and the military. Under the Dualist settlement, each delegation had 60 members, the Austrian side imperial in scope, the Hungarian strictly national. Economic policy was shared between the two delegations, tariffs among the empire were to be settled very 10 years, generally creating leverage for the Hungarian magnates’ agrarian demands at the expense of imperial industrial interests in cheap food. The empire’s declining aristocracy acceded because of its unwillingness to rule; the liberals did not understand they had no real role; the dynasty was content with maneuvering to retain power; Dualism was a return to Bach.
Francis Joseph resented the liberals’ interference with Dualism over 1867-79, and so doubled down on the Magyars. Hungary after 1867 had seen the disappearance of 100,000 landowners, resulting in one-third of the country being owned by magnates, one-fifth by some 300 families. Agrarian protection turned the magnates into nationalists, much as the Junkers became German patriots. Land reform having killed Austria’s regional nobles, capitalist successors concentrated in Vienna, weakening any would-be federalism. But the economic crisis of 1873 shook industrialist and bourgeois faith in liberalism: they turned for protection to the Habsburg state, simultaneously making way for nationalism. In the succeeding era of 1879-93, Taafe balanced the subject peoples. The Czechs, able to compete for jobs, turned loyal to constitutional Austria; but this produced Germanic backlash. Proposals to extend the franchise raised more fears. He was dismissed in favor of a nationalities coalition of ministers, another Habsburg reverse of course, again government disrupted while administration persisted.
Austria in her final years was a vast body of state servants, amid three competing constitutional frameworks – the October Diploma, the February Patent, and Dualism. Every year the provinces gained responsibility, yet could not contain nationalist discontent, but only relay it to the Reichsrat. There being very little power in the private sector, every small matter of railway, schools, or postal appointment was politically fraught. In the 1890s the price of defeating liberalism emerged as the diversion of emergent middle-class aspirations to national autonomy, which redounded to claims that eventually reached further than parliamentary purview of foreign policy and the army. Loyalty to the emperor no longer sufficed for intellectuals or urban classes, as it had for the military and bureaucracy. Indeed, Christian socialism (more populist than Germany’s Center) and Social democracy presented more alternatives; while these acted to deny nationalist claims, they sought for the same distributive socioeconomic functions.
The dynasty achieved liberty to manage constitutional Austria by following a foreign policy sympathetic to Germany. When the latter abandoned Bismarck’s pacificism for Weltpolitik, the empire and its peoples became beholden to Germany’s bid for mastery of Europe – no liberty after all. Austria-Hungary was neutral in the 1877-78 Russo-Turkish war but consequently gained responsibility for Bosnia-Herzegovina, adding Slavs to the empire, which reinforced the Bismarckian intention of Germanic predominance in the Balkans. But the chancellor’s dismissal led to Wilhem II committing Germany to follow Austrian lead in the Balkans in 1889. 1905’s Moroccan crisis, Germany’s first attempt to subdue France and Russia, was the dynasty’s last independent effort.
The Austro-Russian entente of 1897, which swapped Russian non-interference in the Balkans for recognition of her interests in the Straits, was intended to promote domestic stability. Instead it enabled subject peoples to make claims of the dynasty, e.g., fuller use of the Czech language in Bohemia. These prompted German demonstrations in Austria, unprecedented since 1848, and thence Badeni’s dismissal. The same year, Hungarian tariff negotiations, eventually postponed to 1903, opened new attacks on Dualism (e.g., against the common army), prompting further protest from the German ‘people of state’.
The final dynasty’s insurmountable challenge would come from the South Slav idea. Strosmajer (not Tito) was the real creator of the South Slav idea, but his conception didn’t reconcile the Serbs (who’d fought Turks) and Croats (who’s opposed Magyars and sometimes Habsburgs); the Serbs took their culture from Paris, the Croats from Germany; Slovenia, isolated from both by the Hungarian frontier, naturally allied with the Czechs. All the missteps of 1907-14 sprang from mistaking Serbia, totem of the South Slavs, for Piedmont. The Magyar proposal to make Hungarian the sole language of local rails, even in Croatia, aggravated Serbo-Croat intellectuals. More significant, Bosnia-Herzegovina was annexed in 1908, in exchange for Austria’s supporting Russian warships passing through the Dardanelles. Supervision was justified, annexation was not. In the late days of the empire, military spending lagged behind the other Great Powers.
Magyar support for Germany in World War I was Hungary’s foremost concession to greater Germany. Kossuth had expected that for Mitteleuropa’s nationalities to emerge, the empire must fall. Tisza supposed Hungary could remain independent of Germany too because the Prussians were reliably anti-Slav. He checked Germany attempts to win over Romania via Transylvanian concession. Most nationalities had 2-3 natural opponents, the Czechs only the Germans, fearing victory as fatal to an independent Bohemia. Francis Joseph passed in 1916, succeeded by Charles, who sought Magyar mollification and independent negotiation with the allies. Tisza threatened to withhold food. The Czechs demanded to add Hungarian Slovakia. The Poles finally broke with the empire over the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk’s recognizing a Ukraine which included parts of historic Poland. In 1848 the threat of social revolution rallied the upper classes to the dynasty. In the war’s dying stages, they sought strength in nationalism. Masaryk won Wilson away from the ‘Austrian mission’ of federalism to self-determination, aided by American Slovaks willing to support to the new Czech state.
The empire’s successors faced problems in establishing domestic authority and security against revanchist Germany. They were little better than the Habsburgs. Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, borne of nationalist expression, became new versions of the Austrian idea.
***
Rather than narrate events and draw conclusions, Taylor deduces ineluctable logic, a technique dependent on construction or interpretation. Further, his is often discursive, constantly renewed with addition, subtraction, refinement.

16. Stephens, Britain Alone (28 August 2025)

A mellifluous but inadequate critique of British foreign policy since 1956, marshalling events toward the conclusion that the UK’s leaving the European Union will have been disastrous. ‘The vital missing ingredient was a framework – a grand strategy, as foreign policy practitioners would call it – grounded in a realistic appraisal of the reach of a middle-ranking power’ (p. 424). Stephens favors macroeconomic and foreign-policy convention (‘how it’s done’), as befits excellent sourcing, but is careless of historical evaluation and glosses matters of political legitimacy such as Parliamentary sovereignty and the common law.

As early as 1945 The Foreign Office concluded Britain would have to be a European power in order to remain a world leader. Postwar Germany wanted low industrial tariffs and France agricultural subsidies, but England hadn’t defined its continental objectives, being preoccupied with Labor’s extension of the welfare state and balance-of-payments problems. In 1950, Robert Schuman gave England but one day to accept the principles of the proto-European Coal and Steel community. The UK missed another chance in declining to participate in 1955’s Messina conference, wrangling with the choice of Europe or Atlanticism.

Pretensions of independent status, or at least a balanced special relationship, were shattered by the Suez crisis. (In withdrawing US support, Eisenhower covered his desire for smooth re-election and recent withdrawal of Aswan dam financing with anti-colonial rhetoric. But why look past Hungary?) MacMillian persuaded Kennedy to allow the UK a semi-independent nuclear capability, which the prime minister saw as insurance against the possibility of US withdrawal from NATO. It came with the cost of maintaining otherwise unneeded bases east of Suez, thereby reducing other conventional forces, as England continued to struggle with balance of payments and devaluation. Ties were subsequently strained by England’s declining to participate in Vietnam. In all the UK was clearly the supplicant, Atlanticism was never a real alternative.

DeGaulle’s first veto was premised on Commonwealth (i.e., Caribbean and Antipodean foodstuffs); the second deferred to Jean Monnet’s acquis communautaire, an accumulation of diplomatic compromises which the UK could not be allowed to unwind, even though his own Europe de patries was more aligned with England’s preference for a moderate pace of integration.

In 1971, Ted Heath, the Conservatives’ only truly European leader, succeeded by allowing his party a free vote, prompting Labor to follow suit. Jenkins led the rebellion against Wilson, and the vote passed by a clear margin of 112. Thatcher, a ‘leader in search of enemies’ (among other journalistic jibes gratuitous in the longer-term context), is said to be European after all by dint of her 1988 Bruges address. In fact Stephens himself shows she was directly opposing Jacques Delors’ progress toward Maastricht. Blair then abandoned Thatcher’s Maastricht opt-outs for social legislation and the common law.

Stephens cites a Whitehall mandarin’s observation (p. 294) that the EU was becoming a three-leg stool: integration driven by the Paris-Berlin axis, competition by the Berlin-London tie, and defense-diplomacy by Paris-London – notwithstanding Paris having left NATO and his narrative’s course runs the other direction. England had consistently missed opportunities, and more generally been unsure of its post-imperial identity. Thus Cameron’s 2015 plebiscite (as well as 2011’s Sovereign Grant Act) was adjudged by Merkel (and Stephens) to have appeased England’s Euroskeptics.

Stephens accepts projections of economic losses as definitive as well as superordinate to political concerns, whether those of the electorate or those which are structural, such as Parliamentary supremacy or the common law’s conflict with Brussels-made civil law. ‘…The reality was that free trading arrangements relied to a much greater degree on regulatory alignment and share standards and norms’, he writes on p. 394. He bemoans another Tory split’s devastation of England, as over the 19th-century Corn Laws or 20th-century imperial trade preferences, as if the party were not honestly wrestling with the matter, as if the party’s sole purpose were power but not principle. Other arguments are adduced to deride the decision, such as the reopening of Irish border questions following the 1998 Good Friday agreement.

3. Anderson, Revolution (23 February 2025)

Inspired by recovering individual liberty and market economics as well as the need for a strong military, the Reagan presidency amounted to a revolutionary restoration of American government, lifting the United States to the brink of winning the Cold War – albeit not before recovering from the Iran-contra affair.

The three fundamental issues of American politics are peace, prosperity, and individual liberty. The core of the 1980 presidential campaign, from Anderson’s vantage as policy and economics chief, were economic policy (i.e., tax), energy, and foreign policy and defense. Reagan saw a thriving economy and strong military (i.e., anti-Soviet foreign policy including the Strategic Defense Initiative) as imperatives; the latter was not a contingency but an absolute requirement. The arms race was one-sided, the US held back by elite opinion. Declining Soviet economics were accelerated by falling oil prices, China’s conversion to market economics, and American missile defense, which together forced Russia to choose between guns and butter. Whereas an improving US economic would alleviate the same dilemma.

In August 1980, economic forecasters including the Congressional Budget Office showed tax revenue for the next five years would increase faster than government expense. By 1985, there would be a $45 billion surplus; but the $55 billion deficit in 1981 was a campaign liability. Reagan’s October 1976 op-ed calling for reexamination of Harding and Kennedy supply-side tax cuts was the closest he came to claiming cuts would instantly yield more revenue. Tax cuts resulted in the wealthy carrying a large share of the burden.

In the 1960s-80s, new policy ideas came from universities, think tanks, publishing houses, and news media. Milton Friedman is the economic hero; reforming the regulatory state was a major component of economic policy. For Anderson, public service was a duty, but working at Hoover was preferable.

Cabinet councils, informal work groups for interrelated – but not government-wide – issues were highly effective. The use of advisory boards was invaluable for presenting outside views to the president. In foreign policy, advisors are more critical than in domestic affairs because matters are less subject to public knowledge and scrutiny. In Reagan’s second term, Baker, Meese, Kirkpatrick, and Deaver were out of the picture, while Bush was ineffective. Bill Casey is the villain: his sins included Iran-contra as well as dismantling PFLAB. Iran-contra reinforced that trading with terrorists is a very poor strategy: the terrorists will always return for more. Producing intelligence should always be separate from setting policy (consuming it).

Management under Reagan featured establishing strategic priorities, changing tactics as warranted, delegating aggressively, and negotiating from overstated starting points. In elaborating Reagan’s strategy of asking for 200 percent of the objective, he defends Baker’s work as chief of staff. Nixon’s mismanaging personnel selection crippled his presidency, a mistake Reagan was conscious to avoid.

21. Kennedy, Rise and Fall of Great Powers (13 Dec 2018)

The rise and fall of leading nation-states is determined by the interplay of economics, technology, and military prowess. Expanding nations more easily support ever-rising costs of warfare; declining countries have to make fateful strategic choices. In the author’s multipolar framework, changes in trade patterns presage the outcomes of strategic conflicts, and so foreshadow the next political order. Individual leadership is less important because imperatives and choices are made in the context of Bismarck’s ‘stream of time’: strengths are relative. The outcome of warfare over 1450-1950 confirmed long-term economic shifts, often borne of new technology. Revised territorial order reflected redistribution, but peace did not freeze socioeconomic conditions.
Global powers tend to overspend on defense and underinvest in growth. Japan became a financial power (i.e., leading creditor nation) following its industrial rise: evidence – or the author – suggests the Asian country is most likely to supplant the ‘overstretched’ USA. The challenge to American longevity lies in defense commitments to overseas position obtained when it had a higher share of global GDP, a better balance of payments, and less debt. The most serious threat hegemons face is failure to adjust to change.
In the 15th century, European states trailed the Asian dynasties. War shaped its rising powers; distributed economic growth made it impossible to suppress all of them; the key economic development was the long-range ship. Within Europe itself, states were always spending to overpower another. Spain lacked manpower, grew slowly (aside from New World bullion), and suffered precarious finances. It was overstretched. French aspirations were checked by the balance of power, most importantly by result of the War of Spanish Succession, and backward finance. Following the Diplomatic Revolution of 1753, which crystallized England’s balance of power strategy, British mercantile prowess and ability to borrow fueled its win in the Seven Years War (one of seven with France over 1689-1815), and thus hegemony to 1945.
In the Victorian era, Britain’s industrial might was less oriented to the military than any era since the Stuarts. Further, it had no appetite for Continental interventions. Its power owed to its navy and colonies – productive investments – as well as the City of London. Despite the rise of late 19th-century US and Germany industry as well as Prussian military reform, the UK’s position circa 1914 was not so weak as often portrayed. Alliance diplomacy encouraged the drift to World War I, and prevented a quick resolution. The series of UK diplomatic concessions to the US (e.g., fisheries, the Panama Canal, Alaska) overturned conventional expectations of ‘natural’ Anglo-American hostility, and so won the UK a vital ally.
Kennedy observes the Versailles and peacetime politics were reshaped by ideology (Wilson and Lenin), one of the few nods to political ideas. The League didn’t deter aggressors but confused the democracies. Now comprising 27 countries, European consensus on colonies collapsed. Russia is seen as reactive instead of acquisitive in search of a ‘near abroad’ buffer. In the postwar era, the US rise was fueled by commanding share of world GDP, substantial tech innovation, a military proven in Europe and Asia, plus the atomic bomb. But Russia quickly erased the nuclear gap and America’s relative lead shrank after the 1960s: Vietnam, Iran, etc. indicate overstretch. The author applauds Kissinger for recognizing limits of American foreign policy; Nixon’s China overture changed the correlation of forces. Deng wisely recognized peace is necessary for the ‘four modernizations’: agriculture, industry, science, military. Kennedy sees less hope for Soviet Russia but suggests it will be hard to displace its Communist political system. Japanese central planning plus its lack of military commitments makes it the natural successor to the USA.
More like deterministic political science than long-view history, Kennedy’s work overlooks that power is a wasting asset, itself to be used as if an investment; that ideas have consequences, as fuel for socioeconomic events; and relative status is not a straight line – opportunities can be missed. Of course, he failed to anticipate two decades of Japanese stagnation due to real estate collapse, the fall of Soviet

7. Parker, Chamberlain and Appeasement (19 May 2019)

            Narrates British foreign policy in the 1930s, relying on government records and personal papers to show Neville Chamberlain clung to once-respectable appeasement well after the dangers of Hitler’s Germany superseded the errors of World War I. The consequences were postponed rearmament, loss of any chance to head off the conflict, and near disaster in 1940. The consensus of appeasement comprised sympathy for rectifying the Versailles treaty, for great power conciliation (contra French obstruction), and limiting remilitarization, particularly aircraft. It further included strong belief in the League of Nations, and implicit opposition to an antebellum arms race. Chamberlain, who never attended university and so was uncomfortable with challenging debate, held an overmighty opinion of himself and was susceptible to Hitler’s flattery. Close allies Eden and Halifax were pushed away during a succession of events that gradually swung public opinion against status quo: occupation of the Rhineland, the Spanish Civil War, Anschluss, Czech occupation, Polish occupation. The author’s treatment of Soviet gambits, which Chamberlain correctly resisted as camouflaged aggression, is wrongheaded: although diplomatic papers don’t prove it, Stalin’s postwar behavior clearly shows his intent to aggrandize. Chamberlain was prepared to concede Hitler’s demands, if possible through Italian intervention, because he focused on independence (as determined by the UK) not territorial integrity; Eden’s exit from the cabinet made the policy his own. When Chamberlain finally allowed rearmament as a hedge, he focused on the navy and then the air force, despite the obvious threat of the new technology. His course neither deterred Germany nor made conciliation possible. (Aside: the possibility of the unseen moderate is plausible only if the extreme leader can be identified. Otherwise the leader is in fact the extremist and the policy is his.) Having drawn the main line, the author veers into problems presented by totalitarians in Spain and Japan, the latter threatening British economic interests in China, observing Chamberlain was too slow to pursue US support. This highlights the book’s understating Britain’s position as the world’s hegemon, but a declining one – the Athenian problem. Pursuant to which is treatment of Britain’s economic position, compromised by balance of payments shortfall and skilled labor shortage: the US recession of 1937 helped the British position. Chamberlain’s foreign policy dictated rearmament, at a slow pace. The Liberals offered no real alternative to the Conservative prime minister, but Winston Churchill’s presence offered a ‘duel’ comparable to Fox-Pitt or Gladstone-Disraeli; oddly, the author says Chamberlain’s policy has been ‘unfairly’ portrayed by the victor.